I suspect I’m not the only one expecting a politically-charged computer worm to emerge any minute. Hacktivism, or ‘electronic civil disobedience,’ as it has been called, is not a new phenomenon. Here’s a 1998 article from the Toronto Star that talks about the start of “human rights hacking” following that embarrassing incident where a group of troublemakers hijacked a Chinese government satellite to make a point. That was just the beginning. Since 9/11 we have seen all sorts of groups express themselves by breaking into Web servers and changing their contents to get their political viewpoints across. These defacements occur on a daily basis and in many cases, they’re simply crimes of opportunity. They are also ways to embarrass and intimidate the victim as seen in this archive of recent government site defacements.

Now, following the hotly-contested U.S. Presidential Election that illustrated strong differences of opinion among voters and people in general, one can’t help but expect some kind of activity from ‘hacktivists.’ As we witness one head of state after another send their sometimes reluctant message of congratulations to George W. Bush, we are reminded that many of the world’s hacktivist groups originate in some of the countries that have openly criticized this administration’s policies.

Looking back over the past four years, we can see that things really began in 2000 when the U.S. experienced a tenfold rise in defacements and political statements made with the help of the Internet (here’s a flavor of a W32 worm that includes an attachment called ShootPresidentBUSH.EXE). The climate has changed a little over the past few years. Thousands of civilians have been killed in terror attacks and, more notably, in various war-related situations in Iraq. This has ostensibly produced anger and a need to speak out, making the Internet the tool of choice for private opinion and public outcry.

With new hints of attacks taking place online, we are seeing mostly distinct groups flex their ‘hacking’ muscles. The thing that should be a concern is the fact that the threats have changed. It is now really easy for anyone to fool search engines with cloaking software or even to use a simple virus creation kit to get their message across. More sophisticated (read: connected) hackers can now use ‘bots’ and ‘botnets’ to control hundreds and sometimes thousands of computers to knock just about any target off the Internet with a coordinated, Distributed Denial-Of-Service (DDOS) attack.

So what’s next, now that ‘Four More Years’ has become a reality? Will it be an eruption of civil electronic disobedience, or will we see just a few Web site defacements and maybe a computer worm with a chip on its shoulder? I’m leaning towards the latter scenario. I think we will see some evidence of discontent, but it will be in short, disorganized bursts. Most viruses tend to be largely ineffective and quickly subdued. Site defacements are usually done by individuals in an effort to show off, and Web servers today are much better prepared to withstand hacking attacks than they were even two years ago. Most important, hackers with a true agenda are usually after money, so they tend to not expose their valuable botnets and resources - especially to a government that is better funded than ever to apply international pressure and catch those who seek to dismantle their profitable operations.

Interested in finding out more? Here are some related stories:

• Defacements rise in China hacker war
• U.S. companies are becoming targets of political activists who know how to hack
• Hackers target governments worldwide
• Hacker defaces 200 government Web sites

Claudiu Popa is an executive security advisor with Informatica Security Corporation in Toronto, Canada. A trusted expert on matters of corporate information security and regular speaker, Claudiu publishes The PULSE, a free, monthly e-mail newsletter available at InfomationSecurityCanada.com.